Election Watch
April 2004

Asking a Few Questions
By Craig Ruff

As campaign 2004 advances, I pose a few questions.

1. True or false? If voters are most concerned about the economy, Kerry wins. If voters are most concerned about terrorism, Bush wins. Is that conventional wisdom (or ignorance) predictive this year?
2. Does anger over the exporting of manufacturing jobs cost Bush dearly in the Rust Belt, including Michigan? Bush did not fare well among Great Lakes states in 2000, winning only Ohio (by 4 percent) and dependably Republican Indiana. If Bush loses Ohio and its 20 Electoral College votes, in what other states less dependent on manufacturing could he offset this loss?
3. Is Michigan truly a bellwether state? The only Republican since the 1940s to win Michigan but lose the White House was home-grown Gerald Ford.
4. Will Vice President Cheney decline renomination? Will he insist that Bush select another running mate to diffuse concerns about Halliburton and his health? Notwithstanding Bush’s reluctance to drop Cheney, will he turn to Condoleezza Rice, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Nunn, Zell Miller, or Tom Ridge?
5. Will John Kerry pick New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson as his running mate, to reach out to Latino voters nationally and carry New Mexico? Gore only won the state by 365 out of nearly 500,000 votes. Will Kerry view Edwards as a bit too charismatic in comparison to himself and of little help in the Republican South? Will he pick a Florida senator (Nelson or Graham)? [A recent Florida poll showed that Kerry does less well when either is on his ticket!]
6. How predictive can national polling be prior to Halloween, inasmuch as global events (good and bad) can erupt so quickly and disrupt voting intentions and attitudes?
7. If Kerry is elected in November, will he ask Governor Granholm to be his attorney general? Will former Governor Blanchard join the cabinet or reenter ambassadorial service?
8. Can Michigan Democrats recapture the state House of Representatives or, at least, prune the current GOP margin of 62–47? Riddled with debt, can either the GOP or Democratic caucuses raise the money needed to win the fifteen or so marginal seats?
9. Is there any way that either Michigan Supreme Court justices Stephen Markman or Marilyn Jean Kelly could lose a bid for reelection?
10. Can any pollster reliably gauge voters’ sentiment toward the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative—banning racial or other preferences by universities? Will its place on the November ballot greatly boost minority turnout?
11. What kind of Republican meltdown could result in Democrats gaining a majority in either the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives?

If you would like to try answering any or all of these questions, e-mail me please.

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