October Politics
October 14, 2002

by Craig Ruff

Michigan Legislature

All 148 seats in the Michigan state legislature are elected in November: 110 representatives and 38 senators. Term limits bump aside 27 senators and 22 house members; another 30 representatives and one senator are voluntarily retiring. Even barring any reelection defeats, more than half of the members of the new state legislature convening in January will never have served a day in state elective office.

Senate

When Republicans redrew senate lines last year, everyone expected them to cement their 23-15 majority. Instead, they remapped districts in a way that enhanced Democratic chances. Perhaps they were frightened by Democratic threats to challenge a redistricting plan in state courts.

Typically, the political parties contest only two or three seats, the remainder safely resting in one party's favor. This year, fifteen seats could go either way! The increased competition is due to the 28 districts without an incumbent and numerous changes in boundaries.

West Michigan hosts three hot senatorial races. In Grand Rapids (29th district), Kentwood mayor Bill Hardiman, a Republican, faces Democratic state representative Steve Pestka. The last Democrat to win this seat was Stephen Monsma, who served until 1982. Both parties like their chances this year.

Both parties are also optimistic about their fortunes in the 20th district in Kalamazoo County. State representative Tom George, a Republican, faces former Democratic state representative Ed LaForge. In the 34th district—which takes in Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, and Mason counties—Republican state representative Gerald Van Woerkom is favored but not certain to beat Democrat Bob Shrauger, who has twice run for the U.S. House of Representatives in the area.

Statewide and overall, look for the Republicans to barely hang on to Senate control. The best guess at this stage is that the new Senate will be comprised of 21 Republicans and 17 Democrats. If several key races break their way, perhaps nudged along on Granholm and Levin coattails, Democrats could win 19 seats. That would result in an evenly divided chamber; the new lieutenant governor would cast the tie-breaking vote, allowing his party to organize the Senate.

House of Representatives

Unlike their Senate colleagues, House Republicans took keen advantage of redistricting. Currently, the GOP enjoys a 58-52 advantage.

In West Michigan, nearly all state house contests are lopsided. Democrats are nearly assured to win three urban districts: the Muskegon city district (Julie Dennis, incumbent), the Grand Rapids seat being vacated by Steve Pestka, and Kalamazoo city district (Alexander Lipsey). Republicans likely will win all remaining seats, excepting two hotly contested races.

Rep. Van Woerkem's house district in Muskegon County has vacillated between the two parties for decades. Democratic county commissioner Nancy Frye and Republican lobbyist David Farhat are locked in a close battle. Republican incumbent Jerry Kooiman (75th district) won 53.4 percent of the vote in 2000, a close call. This year he faces Democrat Peter Vander Meulen. Kooiman may benefit, as Republicans generally do, from a lower turnout than in 2000's presidential contest. Al Gore carried his district and the city of Grand Rapids in 2000; this year, Kooiman may have to contend with Granholm-Levin coattails.

Statewide, Republicans seem likely or certain to win 56 seats; the Democrats seem similarly ahead in 47 contests. Seven seats are toss-ups. The Democrats bear the burden of winning one or two upsets and all the toss-ups to regain control that they lost in 1998. The best guess for a final outcome is continued GOP House control by a 59-51 margin.

National Scene

T. S. Elliot spent too little time following politics when he called April the cruelest month. On a political timeline, surely October fetches that distinction as well as the most surprising month. Negativity and finger pointing have yet to sink to historically low levels, but they are on the right trajectory. Candidates, events, and voters are unstable this year, rocking one other haphazardly.

Never before in American history have the two congressional chambers been controlled so narrowly by different parties. One and five switches respectively in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives toss control to the current minority party in each chamber.

U.S. Senate

In mid-summer, Democratic control of the U.S. Senate seemed likely to continue. Republicans entered the 2002 election with 20 seats at stake, while the Democrats were defending only 14. Furthermore, Republican incumbents Phil Gramm, Jesse Helms, and Fred Thompson chose to retire. Until the weird exit by Democrat Bob Torricelli, every Democratic incumbent chose to seek reelection. Seats without an incumbent generally are easier to pick off by the opposing party. Finally, the party holding the White House lost seats in 16 of the 22 mid-term elections since direct election of senators.

Resisting historical and mathematic trends, the GOP is actually in good shape. Vulnerable Republican seats have been shored up in North Carolina, Tennessee, Maine, New Hampshire, and Oregon, leaving four Republican seats vulnerable to Democrats (Arkansas, Texas, Colorado, and New Hampshire). Democrats are uneasy about retaining seats in South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Iowa.

The central time zone determines which party will control the new U.S. Senate. At 9:00 PM election night, exit polls will disgorge likely outcomes in Arkansas, Texas, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, and Iowa. The "Plains Six" results should tell us whether or not Tom Daschle is majority or minority leader.

A footnote to the U.S. Senate contests deserves attention. Missouri's Senator, Democrat Jean Carnahan, is filling a vacancy. Should she lose on November 5, Republican Jim Talent will immediately replace her, giving the Republicans a 50-49 edge over the Democrats (with Vermont's James Jeffords serving as an independent). We could endure an unprecedented third shake-up in leadership and committee chairs this year.

U.S. House of Representatives

Republicans hold 222 seats and 218 are needed to be in majority. As is true of the U.S. Senate, the party holding the White House typically loses seats in the U.S. House of Representatives; that's happened in 22 of the last 25 mid-term elections. Democrats have added seats in each of the last three elections; no party has gained House seats four elections in a row. So, either party is on the verge of making a bit of history.

Redistricting has emboldened each party's chances for gains in different states, but with only a slight, overall edge for the GOP. Declining consumer confidence and stock market values and persistent concern about access to prescription drugs, health care costs, and Medicare and Social Security solvency should be helping Democrats. Instead, the congressional war resolution, imminent involvement in Iraq, and battling terrorists are neutralizing pocketbook issues. That leaves us without a national referendum. In a dozen U.S. House contests, personalities, financial wherewithal, and local issues will determine outcomes and partisan control in 2003.

Democrats need to sweep the close contests to creep up to 218 seats. Those are long odds. A safer bet is that Republicans will gain two or three seats and maintain a very narrow margin of control.