Public Sector Consultants

2008 Michigan Prophecy Results

The winner of the 2008 Michigan Prophecy Contest was Dave Waymire who correctly answered 49 of the 60 questions (81.67% accuracy). Congratulations! If you would like to participate in the 2009 Michigan Prophecy Contest, click here.

All statements are about things that may or may not have happened in calendar year 2008 (January 1, 2008 through December 31, 2008). All statements relate to Michigan, of course.

	POLITICS	Answer	% Correct
1.	The Democratic candidate for president carries Michigan.	Yes	86%
2.	In the November election, turnout in Michigan as a percentage of the voting age population exceeds the 64.7% level of the 2004 presidential election.	Yes	55
3.	In the August primary, the number of voters casting ballots is less than 1,100,000. [In 2006, the turnout was 1,282,203.]	No	40
4.	Democrats win 56 or more seats in the state House of Representatives elections in November.	Yes	65
5.	No incumbent state representative loses in the general election.	Yes	9
6.	In November, Republicans win all their nine currently held seats in Michigan’s delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives.	No	64
7.	Supreme Court Justice Clifford Taylor seeks and wins reelection.	No	24
8.	Democrats win six or more of the eight contests in November for educational posts (two seats each on the state Board of Education and governing boards of MSU, U of M, and Wayne State).	Yes	70
9.	At least four issues (referendum, initiative, or constitutional amendment) appear on the November statewide ballot.	No	34
10.	A proposal to alter term limits appears on a statewide ballot.	No	51
11.	Before December 31, 2008, the president-elect announces that s/he will name a Michigan resident as a new cabinet secretary.	No	62
12.	President Bush gives a public speech in Michigan at something other than a political fundraiser.	No	75
13.	Between January 30 and December 31, 2008, three or more state department directors announce their resignation or leave office.	Yes	85
14.	State government increases sin taxes on one or more of these products: cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, liquor, beer, or wine.	No	40
15.	The price of Michigan corn will exceed $4/bushel on December 31, 2008.	No	29

	ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS	Answer	% Correct
1.	Michigan’s unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) in November 2008 will be 8.0 percent or higher.	Yes	41%
2.	Through September 30, 2008 (for the first three quarters of the year), worldwide sales of GM vehicles exceed those of Toyota.	No	66
3.	The interest rate of a 30-year fixed mortgage (Detroit) on December 31, 2008, will be at or lower than 5.0%. [As of December 4, 2007, it stood at 5.53%.]	No	81
4.	The National Bureau of Economic Research declares a national recession.	Yes	46
5.	At the close of December 31, 2008, a share of stock in Ford (F) will sell for $8.00 or more (as of December 1, 2007, it traded at $7.51).	No	54
6.	At the close of December 31, 2008, a share of stock in GM (GM) will sell for $30.00 or more (as of December 1, 2007, it traded at $29.83).	No	43
7.	At the close of December 31, 2008, a share of stock in Dow Chemical (DOW) will sell for $42.00 or more (as of December 1, 2007, it traded at $41.94).	No	31
8.	At the close of December 31, 2008, a share of stock in Spartan Motors (SPAR) will sell for $10.00 or more (as of December 1, 2007, it traded at $9.98).	No	41
9.	At the close of December 31, 2008, a share of stock in Universal Forest Products (UFPI) will sell for $29.00 or more (as of December 1, 2007, it traded at $28.61).	No	38
10.	At the close of December 31, 2008, a share of stock in Compuware (CPWR) will sells for $8.00 or more (as of December 1, 2007, it traded at $8.26).	No	40
11.	At the close of December 31, 2008, a share of stock in Kellogg (K) will sell for $55.00 or more (as of December 1, 2007, it traded at $54.04).	No	37
12.	At the close of December 31, 2008, a share of stock in Whirlpool (WHR) sells for $81.00 or more (as of December 1, 2007, it traded at $80.96).	No	45

	SPORTS	Answer	% Correct
1.	The Detroit Red Wings play in the Stanley Cup finals.	Yes	46%
2.	The Detroit Tigers play in the World Series.	No	55
3.	The Detroit Lions win the same number of or more games than they lose.	No	52
4.	The Detroit Pistons play in the NBA finals.	No	56
5.	MSU or U of M shares or wins the Big Ten football championship.	No	66
6.	Central Michigan wins its third-in-a-row MAC conference championship.	No	44
7.	Both MSU’s women’s and men’s basketball teams make it to the final four of their respective NCAA tournaments.	No	67
8.	Tiger Woods wins the Buick Open.	No	55
9.	Someone other than Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Jimmie Johnson, or Jeff Gordon wins the Michigan International Speedway (MIS) race in June.	Yes	75
10.	A Michigan team wins the 2008 NCAA hockey championship.	No	69
11.	In the Beijing Olympics, a Michigan resident wins a gold medal.	Yes	52
12.	In the Beijing Olympics, a Michigan resident wins three or more medals (gold, silver, or bronze).	Yes	26
13.	The Big Ten Network folds.	No	75

	ARTS, CULTURE, AND EDUCATION	Answer	% Correct
1.	A Michigan resident or newspaper wins a Pulitzer Prize.	No	68%
2.	A Michigan resident wins or shares a Nobel Prize.	No	94
3.	A Michigan native wins a Tony for a lead or featured performance.	No	77
4.	A hardcover book (fiction or non-fiction) written by a Michigan resident appears for at least one week as the New York Times’ top bestseller.	Yes	62
5.	Two or more presidents of Michigan’s 15 public universities announce during 2008 their retirement or resignation or are dismissed.	No	31
6.	Three or more national Emmies go to Michigan residents.	No	82
7.	A Michigan resident competes in the final 12 for American Idol.	No	59
8.	A film production involving a high-speed chase is shot in Michigan.	Yes	42
9.	In December, a Michigan native wins best actor/actress or best supporting actor/actress from a major film critics association for a film released in 2008.	No	85

	ET CETERA AND THE SILLY	Answer	% Correct
1.	A Michigan resident wins the national spelling bee.	No	97%
2.	The head count of adults incarcerated in state correctional facilities will be lower on December 31, 2008, than on January 1, 2008.	Yes	62
3.	One or more Michigan-Canadian border crossings closes for seven or more days.	No	77
4.	At the 2008 Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show, a Michigan dog wins “Best in Show.”	No	94
5.	The Labor Day Mackinac Bridge walk/run is cancelled or postponed.	No	91
6.	Media confirm that Romeo’s Robert Ritchie (better known as “Kid Rock”) and Pamela Anderson are engaged to or have married each other again.	No	90
7.	The city of Milan changes its pronunciation to mih-LAHN or the city of Charlotte to SHAR-lut.	No	96
8.	CBS announces that a new CSI series is planned for Bad Axe, Battle Creek, Hell, or another Michigan locale.	No	96
9.	Someone catches a live wolverine within the state.	No	87
10.	Madonna Louise Ciccone moves back to Michigan.	No	98
11.	Michigan adopts the Euro as its currency.	No	100
12.	The number of Michigan 2008 car/deer accidents, as reported by the Michigan Deer Crash Coalition, exceeds the 2007 tally (currently estimated at 70,000)*	Waiting for data 71% (Yes) 29% (No)
* Due to data unavailability, question 12 was not included in the tally of responses for the winner of the Michigan Prophecy Contest. This data will not be available until March 2009.

TIE BREAKER	Answer	% Correct
At the closing bell on December 31, 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial average is at or higher than 15,000.	No	70%